[November 1, 2017] Leadership often means advancing into new territory; operating when the rules are unclear or confusing, working with organizations that are not ready for change, or advancing an agenda that is highly controversial. This describes the political situation in the breakaway region of Spain known as Catalonia.
Leaders and followers of the Catalonia Independence Movement are starting to see Spain’s government start to crack down hard on the breakaway region.1 A few weeks ago I introduced the topic of the movement and set the stage for following the saga of the leaders in both Spain and Catalonia (see link here). Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont is about to tread a rarely traveled, difficult path. Where this goes, nobody knows.
The grand idea of Catalonia to seceding from Spain has been a desire for centuries. It’s a part of the Catalan culture and the psyche of their citizens. But the similarities of this independence movement to others in Europe show more differences than parallels. Primarily, this is about Spanish democracy and a threat to tear itself apart. Should Spain give up the revolution, crack down on it, or wait out the problem?
When political leaders react to a serious threat to the rule of law, they are known to take the “crackdown” option; often doing it with little restraint. That is what the Spanish government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy did when the Catalan parliament declared independence earlier this week. It went hard against the independence movement; a calculated decision that may succeed or fail.
It was postulated that this heavy-handed approach under Article 155 of the Spanish constitution would drive many neutral Catalan citizens into the independence movement’s arms. But more importantly how PM Rajoy uses his new powers under 155 will determine the final outcome; use it too heavy-handedly could have unintended and negative consequences, use it too lightly and Catalonia might break away.
The biggest threat is a major violent backlash by the region’s citizens. Unknown to most Americans, there is also a strong socialist opposition to Catalan independence that is prepared to take advantage of the situation if blood is spilt.
More later on Catalonian independence and how leaders on each side act to win. We will address how leaders across the world support or deny support for the movement and why.
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