[September 19, 2023] China is doomed. There is hardly a better word for it, and now the world knows it. The Chinese Communist economic model, highly touted by Western sycophants, is unsustainable. But just a few years ago, we were told China would overtake the United States and crush us economically. That was a lie and always has been one.
Official economic mismanagement, corruption, out-of-control debt, and destruction of the environment are significant factors that alone will guarantee the collapse of China. Too many Americans have been willfully blind to these endemic issues that have plagued China for the past 50 years. These alone are a killing virus that pushes China ever more deeply into chaos as each year passes.
It is the malicious destruction of its families by the Communists that ensures China will not just collapse but may never rise. China’s one-child policy forcefully removed “some 400 million of the most productive, hardworking, enterprising people on the planet.” [see China’s Ticking Baby Time Bomb, link here].
Abortion is the primary tool used by the Communist government to bring their population growth under control. The unintended consequence has been creating a culture where children are not valued but seen as expensive toys. Recognizing the failure of the one-child policy, their government ended it and predicted a birthrate recovery. Not only did that not happen, but the birthrate continued to fall.
China has one of the lowest birth rates in the world at an official number of 1.09 (2.1 is the replacement level). Like most Communist countries, the CCP lies about its statistics to make itself look better. The actual fertility rate is undoubtedly lower. China claims its population is 1.41 billion people. U.S. demographers estimate the actual number is closer to 1.28 million. The 130 million difference would be people in childbearing age groups. The result can only be catastrophic. India is now the largest country in the world.
Last year in December, I wrote that, “By 2030 there will be more retirees than workers, and by 2050, the entire population of China will drop to below 650 million. This means that this is the decade that the Chinese economic system will collapse, assuming nothing else will go wrong.” [see link here] And, it looks like everything is going wrong.
Chairman Xi’s total control of the country is crushing innovation, flexibility in the economy, and slow or unresponsive decision-making. Now, Xi’s leadership no longer matters; the mistakes are fatal and already made. And, it doesn’t matter what creative policies Xi decides to create, it is too late. China is doomed to fail. There is nothing anyone can do about it.
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Good riddance to China.
For those who have a doubt about what Gen. Satterfield is writing here, then go out and look for other sources. They are every where. I highly recommend Peter Zeihen.
Yep, great source on China but there are many more. “The Rise and Fall of China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy”
https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/the-rise-and-fall-of-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomacy/
It is true enough that China is about to fall. Personally, China could crash tomorrow and most of us would be better off, esp those living in the 3rd world where China is taking advantage of their corruption. But my concern is how that crash (slow crash or fast) is going to impact the rest of the world. Good riddance to China.
Ouch, Jose, tell us what you think. Altho, I must admit I agree fully with you. Ouch.
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Jose and Emma, good points but Emma has highlighted what many world leaders think too. What will happen to us when China crashes and what will Xi do? Will he invade Taiwan? Will he use nukes? Will Xi be assassinated? Well, no one knows the answer to that and the “experts” are always WRONG.
The “fall” of China will have may unexpected consequences. We have leaders who should be thinking about this and making preparations.
Excellent article. Makes me think about how government tinkering in social affairs can be fatal.
Absolute great comment Bobby Joe.
“Abortion is the primary tool used by the Communist government to bring their population growth under control. The unintended consequence has been creating a culture where children are not valued but seen as expensive toys. – Gen. Doug Satterfield
Nailed it ……………………………
See Gen. Satterfield’s article on beautiful babies and abortion … here
https://www.theleadermaker.com/beautiful-babies-and-abortion/
In this article he lays out a strong case against abortion. China should have listened.
✔✔✔✔ Yes, indeed, China is destined to fail as a country and there is nothing anyone can do about it because the main force causing the decline is demographic. All the other problems nipping at their heels will only aggravate the demographic decline. BTW, listen to podcasts about women over 27 being unable to find husbands despite there being an imbalance of men in the majority of the population.
Excellent info, docwatson, and thanks for that. What I find amazing is these trends crushing China have bee visible for over a decade and yet no one thought it could happen. China is a bad actor on the international order. I’m happy they are in free fall.
Yes, they are getting what they deserve. Too bad the elder population in China is dying off, they were pro-American because we saved them in WWII. Their kids are punks and don’t know their own history.
😁👌👀✔❤😎 THANKS
Gen. Satterfield, thanks for helping bring reality to the “experts” in Washington DC who predicted the rise of China and that that country would crush the United States and be world dominating in all economic platforms, social and political. Those so-called experts were wrong. Of course, they will be making excuses like America is racist for pointing out the obvious but those are just political radical leftists who love Marx and his ilk that parade around in a costume as sycophants of communism. Of course, what else would be expect from them as they are educated in our woke colleges learning nothing but Marxist ideologist and how that will save us. Yeah, right!
Jelly, great to see you on Gen. Satterfield’s blog again. I hope you write another article soon. ✔
Your blog is the very best, Gen. Satterfield, thank you and for this article.
….. and China’s wages have increased 15% in the last 20 years (Peter Zeihen). So their economic model of being highly competitive is eroding fast.
And crushing innovation.
Assassinating & jailing possible competitors to Xi.
Too slow removing the one-child policy.
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FACTS
Yep, and the Western economics who predicted otherwise are just Communist wannabes.
Yep, thanks for that note.
But if you want to see howto really get along with a good life (even if you live in China), then read gen. Satterfield’s booik “55 Rules for a Good Life” and you won’t regret it.
Welcome back.
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Yep. And that is the point.