[December 10, 2022] What’s happening between China and Taiwan in light of the Ukraine War? A lot of senior policy folks in the U.S. government were openly discussing that the master geopolitical plan in the East would be that Russia would go first for Ukraine, and China would go for Taiwan, more or less at the same time and the United States and the rest of the world would be left unable and likely unwilling to intervene in both.
Things have not broken that way. The question is why. Most of us believe the reason is that Chinese leaders’ assumptions about taking over Taiwan have been proven false. Three long-held Chinese assumptions are wrong.
The first Chinese assumption was that the war would be quick. That the Russians would roll over Ukraine in no time at all. That is not how things have gone as Russia has bogged down and taken massive military losses and is, as of today, given up ground. Regardless of who wins this war, the issue here is that it will take a lot of time to conclude the war.
Taiwan is a country that has been preparing for war with an invasion by China for 60 years. Ukraine has only been a functional country now for less than a decade, and, as well, it sits right on the western border of Russia proper. Taiwan is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait, which is 97 miles wide at the most narrow point. For China to make a play for Taiwan, it would mean that the Chinese military would have to surge its troops across this open span of water, providing Taiwan with an opportunity to do great damage. The is a fundamental question today, whether Taiwan has deliverable nuclear warheads.
The second Chinese assumption is that China could take over the semiconductor sector in Taiwan and then leapfrog to become the most powerful semiconductor country in the world. Here is the problem. China is not good a producing semiconductors, as they make only low-end chips. China does not have the technical skills, the workforce, or command of the supply chains, and all the designs for the Taiwan chips come from Japan and the U.S.
The third Chinese assumption is that they could impose a deal on the rest of the world with the capture of Taiwan. Not only would the fight for Taiwan be just as nasty as Russia and Ukraine, we now know that the West has some cultural gumption. If we were to take the economic sanctions put on Russia and put them on China, they would be catastrophic. The Russian economy may be weak, but it is a massive surplus producer and exporter of foodstuffs and energy. China is the world’s largest importer of all of that, especially that which requires them to grow food.
But what has terrified the Chinese most about the Ukraine War are the boycotts. The idea that private companies can change policies and challenge existing states and those individual consumers could, in mass, take a stand is not in the Chinese thinking process.
The entire Chinese economic model is based on mass imports, mass exports, tech transfer, and foreign markets. Without global, foreign corporate cooperation with the Chinese economy, there is no Chinese economy. Every single assumption that the Chinese have been operating under for decades, the Russians have proven false in just a few months.
Note: Much of this presentation was taken from Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist. You can see a video on this topic at this link. I recommend his videos and books.
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Wonderful forum here. I hope to contribute. Thank you. Merry Christmas.
Welcome cute lady. Yes, please read the forums for a better understanding of the articles by Gen. Satterfield and you can ask questions too that we will attempt to give a full answer to.
Smart update by Gen. S.
❤❤❤❤❤ We are fortunate to have found Gen. Satterfield and his blog on leadership but he also instructs us on how to be a better, stronger person too.
Excellent points, Gen. Satterfield, thanks!!
If you have any military background at the operational or strategic level, you will have a better understanding of the importance of this article for our senior leaders. True enough that our military has become WOKE and doesn’t have the punch or deterrence it once had, only recently. But China has been put back on their heals regarding the Taiwan issue. How this will play out is anyone’s guess.
Thank you Army Vet, and BTW, I’m a huge fan of yours as so many here in this leadership forum.
We are all fortunate too.
Good article that filled in some blanks for me. ✔
Exactly why I read this leadership blog by General Satterfield every single day!!!!!!!
Yes, good article and one that gets you to thinking what else I’m missing by reading stupid newspapers!
Hey folks, don’t forget to read the “daily favorites” in the tab. Today’s articles will make you think more too. Gen. Satterfield’s daily favorites should be read daily, duh if you don’t.
Couldn’t have said it better than this article by Gen. Satterfield and the fact he identified what were the basic assumptions on war in the East. The Chinese figured they could take over Taiwan and the world would do nothing at all about it, especially now that the United States has a very weak, bumbling President who doesn’t even know where he is. And the fact that Pres Biden just went begging to Saudi Arabia to produce more oil. And, now China’s Xi is in Saudi Arabia to strike a deal and the Saudi King is all for it. Now is the time China could go for Taiwan but these assumptions are killed off.
Good points Max and yes the US does have a very weak and ineffective president. So sad for Americans and the world. Tyrants can do as they wish.
Right and the world cannot follow a weak America. Joe Biden is more concerned about trading an international terrorist with a LGBTQ+ queer black weirdo.
Thoughtful comment, Max. This article is truly a good one if you want to know more about foreign relations and international politics.
We all wish we could have a better president. Joe Biden is WORSE than Jimmy Carter and that says a lot. The problems we see on the world stage is occurring because the world sees America as weak – and we are weak and not just because we have a weak and unaccountable president but our armed forces are infected with woke ideology that is destroying it from the inside out.
Another informative article. I’d like to see more like this.
Oh, please get General Doug Satterfield’s new book “55 Rules for a Good Life” and you will not regret it.
😎👍❤✔✌😍
Right Forrest, and be smart about it.
Waz up? Great thinking here Gen. Satterfield. I’d like for you to give us more on the lessons of the Ukraine War with Russia and focus on how it is impacting Russia proper. Thank you for the consideration.
China chose badly when “president” (tyrant for life) Xi decided to align with Russia in the war against Ukraine. They are now scared they will never take over Taiwan.
Right, and Gen. Satterfield nails the reasons why in his article. Another great reason to read his blog and read his book “55 Rules for a Good Life” and anything he puts out. I recommend that he start a YouTube channel so we can hear his thoughts directly. Now that is a great way to improve our communicaitons with him.
Great suggestion, Nick. 👍
I like the way you think. Gen. Satterfield should begin a series of lectures on some of these same topics. I would watch them and I know many of my friends would also.