[November 2, 2015] Well … that’s not exactly how the U.S. Presidential election turned out on this date in 1948. Three years earlier, Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, was thrust into the presidency in 1945 after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Everyone was so sure Republican challenger Thomas Dewey of New York would win the 1948 election that the Chicago Daily Tribune published an early edition with the banner headline Dewey Defeats Truman.1
Despite Truman showing effective leadership at the end of World War II and sound vision in the complex postwar world, most Americans considered him less than adequate compared to a popular and decisive leader in Roosevelt. Truman has also irritated Southern Democrats with his civil rights stance and not unexpectedly had low polling numbers. His weak position on containing Communism was also a factor in his poor showing.
Everyone it seemed was for Dewey. Major newspapers ran supportive stories like the New York Times with the headline “Thomas E. Dewey’s Election as President is a Foregone Conclusion.” The emerging public opinion polling community and their various analyses predicted a Dewey victory ranging between 5 and 15 percentage points.2
This shows that “it’s not over till it’s over” in politics as in baseball. A lesson for leaders is that popularity is not the only factor in making a good leader and hard work can accomplish much. It also means predicting a winner is difficult. Knowing his vulnerability, Democrat Truman was aggressive in his cross-country “whistle-stop” train campaign. The Republicans were overconfident of the win by Dewey. Truman Defeats Dewey was the result.
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- http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/truman-defeats-dewey
- http://www.eagleton.rutgers.edu/research/americanhistory/ap_trumandewey.php