[June 13, 2019] A common failure among leaders is an inability to “see” into the future and thus to take steps to prepare for is arrival. Our daily existence depends upon it also. If we forget to pay our utility bills or fill your car up with gasoline, the effect is inconvenient but not catastrophic.
“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.’ – To Neville Chamberlain” – Winston Churchill
British Prime Minister Chamberlain could not see that Nazi Germany was preparing for war and its leader, Adolf Hitler, was a man bent upon conquering much of the modern world. Chamberlain struggled with an increasingly aggressive Germany and acquiesced with his actions at Munich1 to avoid war. Despite being popular at the time, the Munich Agreement was a form of appeasement that tipped Hitler’s thinking about a greater war of conquest in Europe.
Winston Churchill, in his famous admonishment to Chamberlain, had it right. Churchill was able to predict that Nazi Germany’s leadership wanted to conquer all of Europe and punish the Allies for their punitive post-WWI armistice imposed upon Germany. Combined with his racial-superiority and socialist ideology, fascism, Hitler believed he had the moral duty to create the greatest empire ever in human history.
When people make choices about the future, there will always be a price. When our most senior leaders make choices, the consequences can and will shape the lives of everyone. In the case of Britain in the late 1930s, Chamberlain’s agreement to concede the Sudetenland region to Germany was a masterful stroke of diplomacy, but a disaster that set the stage for WWII and the deaths of millions and great misery for humans on a scale never experienced.
Great leaders can “see” into the future. More art based on experience and critical thinking than upon some scientific process, seeing the future is a core attribute of any successful society. Are senior leaders often wrong in their projection of the future? Yes. Without the thinking that goes into future predictions, finding solutions would be that much more difficult.
Chamberlain failed to prepare his country for a war against Germany. His shortsightedness is sometimes excused, and thus his reputation remains controversial among historians. However, results matter and his appeasement failed not just the citizens of Britain but many others in Europe. When you can “see” the future, you can prepare for it. Remember the Boy Scout motto; be prepared.
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Loved today’s article. Thank you and keep up your wonderful leadership blog.
I’ve been reading a number of military history books lately and believe they all support the idea here that leaders must be able to look out into the future and figure out what will happen and then prepare for it. That is, indeed, what makes the difference between the mediocre and the great leader.
I agree. I just finished reading Bill O’Reilly’s “Culture Warrior.” Great book and I suggest everyone get a copy and read it.
https://www.billoreilly.com/culturewarrior
You can get it at a big discount now.
Here is an Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/Culture-Warrior-Bill-OReilly/dp/0767920937
Thanks Andrew, I too read it. And, I agree with you that it supports what Gen Satterfield is writing about in his blog. Over the past few years (yes, I’m a regular reader and commentator) Gen Satterfield has written often about this idea.
I enjoyed today’s article. Thank you. It got me to thinking about my own life and what I’ve planned for and (of course) failed to plan for.
Gen. Satterfield, your example of Chamberlain’s failure to “see” into the future and to be prepared to resist Hitler’s rise in Germany is probably the most classic from the 20th Century. Human history is full of those examples. We know now that some leaders can look out into the future and see and prepare for it. Others not.
The idea that Gen. Satterfield has raised here in today’s blog is critically important for many reasons. One is that senior leaders often fail to take into account the most obvious problems. For example, we see the US govt failing to plan for Social Security bankruptcy which is headed our way and no one denies it. They are just waiting for it to fail before taking action. Second, there are problems that are not so obvious but should be prepared for anyway despite being expensive, like hurricanes. They will happen, but the issue is when and where. I’m disappointed in our govt for their high taxes and poor services. That is why I hate socialism.
Yes, and it’s our military leaders that actually do a pretty good job of it. Our politicians suck big time.
I agree. Eric, we are fortunate in the world to have such great leaders in our military.
Thanks Mr. K. I’m one of your fans. We’ve not heard much from you lately so I assume you just returned to the US. Thanks for what you do for us.
Any one who has been around a while knows that being able to look into the future and figure out what will happen is a rare gift. Somethings are easily predicted but often ignored. Like wearing seatbelts, you can see into the future that when a car accident occurs, you will likely die without the seatbelt usage. Therefore, you take precautions now (with almost no effort and zero cost) for something in the future that could cost you a lot.
Not wearing your seatbelt is stupid, not having insurance is stupid, and not taking care of your health is stupid. Stupid is as stupid does.
You make me laugh, Forrest Gump.
Yes, I agree Max. I cannot figure out for the life of me why people are not prepared for the future. Like the kids story where the ant didn’t prepare for the winter that he knew was coming.
Good comment, Max. Well said. I agree that many folks ignore what surely will happen. We’ve all seen it in our families and at work. We often say it’s a “trainwreck waiting to happen.”
Must be some psychological brain block in people to ignore the future.
Perhaps. I agree that something holds most people back but it’s not discrimination, it’s our own laziness and stupidity. 🙂
Just thinking out of the box!
Good article and spot-on comments. Well done!
They should be able to ‘see’ into the future but that is not an easy or simple trait. It takes lots of thinking, experience, and help. Thanks for another great article.
Good point.