[January 19, 2024] Unclassified information from many sources inside and near the Russian Federation has increased concern in the West about Russia’s imminent collapse. But is it true that it is about to implode? While the collapse or implosion of any state is difficult to predict with reasonable accuracy, there are indications we can look at to help us understand.
“Russia is running out of men in their twenties and thirties.” – Peter Zeihen
Here is what we do know.
- Russia is in a massive demographic decline. Russia is in the middle of one of the worst demographic declines in recorded history, even worse than the impact of major pandemics that have hit parts of the world in history. Data on this is so clear that Russian President Putin has taken steps to increase the birth rate. But we now know his incentives will be unsuccessful.
- A large exodus of young people, mostly men and those wealthy enough to get out. The loss of young people, mainly to avoid being drafted into the military and sent off to the frontlines in their war with Ukraine, is especially problematic. The war also disproportionately removes large numbers of military-aged men through death and severe injuries in combat.
- Western sanctions on the Russian economy are beginning to take a significant toll, especially in advanced technology and Western technical support. The Russian ruble is on the precipice of falling off, and no one wants to exchange goods in their currency. Fortunately, Russia has a vast gold reserve that can partly offset this problem, but many obstacles remain. Already, Russians are experiencing spot shortages of critical goods.
- Much of the Russian infrastructure is aging and without recent proper maintenance, resulting in progressively more severe and widespread systemic systems failures. For example, we are getting reports of large-scale heating failures this winter. The infrastructure was built in the Soviet Union days when they had the technical know-how and cheap oil to run them. Neither exists today, and the foreign experts have left the country along with Western companies.
- Demonstrations against the Russian government are popping up more often. There is an old Russian agreement between its citizens and the government that says, stay out of politics, and your quality of life will steadily, albeit slowly, increase. But the government has defaulted on its end of the bargain. Perhaps this is why we are witnessing more public discontent.
- Russia has few allies, and those they have cannot be trusted. China and North Korea are their prominent supporters. Russia is now importing artillery shells and other ammunition from North Korea. Russia cannot pay in rubles, but while we don’t know the details, Russia is paying in intercontinental missile technology. That in itself is dangerous for the world.
On the other hand, Russia is rich in crude oil and exports large quantities, and the world needs oil. As long as the price of oil is high, they do well. However, oil prices are low at this time. Russia also exports iron/steel, fertilizer, gems, and wheat. These are produced using Western machinery and technology, but that is changing for the worse.
Is Russia about to implode? Yes, but only if the war with Ukraine continues. The big question is a matter of when? The implosion may be tomorrow, next week, next year, or five years from now. When Russia goes down, major problems will reverberate worldwide as vast quantities of natural resources go offline for an indeterminate time.
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Excellent article my friend.
The Bible says my people perish because of the lack of knowledge. We need to stay up on the local and national level. What goes on national level effects us local
Eddie, welcome back.
YEP
NOPE
YEP
NOPE
If I sound like our politicians, well, yep, it’s on purpose. Will Russia fail. Yep and it is only a matter of time now. The only thing that can save them is that if they immediately withdraw from Ukraine, sue for peace, and ask for international aid.
Interesting.
Camila, welcome to Gen. Satterfield’s website. Yes, this is indeed interesting. BUt what Gen. Satterfield will need to do to follow-up is to write HOW he thinks Russia will collapse. The Soviet Union collasped and will Russia? Great question that needs an answer.
There are many of us who believe exactly that. But like North Korea who all the experts said it would never last this long, communist nations have a strong resilience becuase they abuse their citizens and make them work for slave wages or put the fear in them to shut up and get with the program. Don’t believe me? Okay, prove me wrong. Western Europe is now preparing to be invaded by Russia. What? Russia can’t even invade Ukraine right.
mainer, right. What’s going on there is a bit of paranoia. Russia’s military is a paper tiger.
Good discussion. I think that Russia will first fall apart militarily and then politically. Economically it may be weak but there are so many natural resources, it’s hard to screw that up. Of course, I do admit they did exactly that in 1991 when the Soviet Union fell part. Let’s see how that collapse occurs in modern day Russia.
Maybe or maybe not. Germany is now preparing for war with RUSSIA. What’s up with that? Maybe Russia’s military is not a paper tiger. I know they have ramped up their production of tanks and other armored vehicles to a pretty high level.
Pray for Ukraine in this war. 🇺🇦
Snow over most of the eastern USA. Wow. Winter is here.
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
Too cold for me! Listening now to Trump in New Hampshire. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
These six things we know about Russia are only their disadvantages and they have had these for a long long time. So discounting Russia is another underestimating their staying power. I predict that there will be a stalemate in Ukraine and Russia will claim they achieved their goals and are now withdrawing. That will not be for another year or so after the Russian population is drained of young productive men.
Could be right here Good Dog. Maybe the war will not have as big of impact on Russia as we might think. The part of the equation here is not looking at the country of Ukraine.
Yes, Forrest Gump, let’s not allow folks to be stupid here and suggest that we are propgandizing the war. The war is what it is. The war has taken a terrible toll in lives and national treasure from both sides and it will be at least two generations before either recover fully, if at all. Russia is the one that Gen. Satterfield firstly addresses and rightly so. Understanding the dire position that the Russian military is in, is something Gen. S. has expertise in and thus listening to what he has to say is good for us to make our opinions. But, as Gen. S. states, opinions are like a$$ holes, we all have them.
Good point, JT.
Does anybody care if Russia falls apart? I don’t.
Tough to read this, “Is Russia about to implode? Yes, but only if the war with Ukraine continues. The big question is a matter of when? The implosion may be tomorrow, next week, next year, or five years from now. When Russia goes down, major problems will reverberate worldwide as vast quantities of natural resources go offline for an indeterminate time.” — Gen. Doug Satterfield. Let’s hope that Russia simply lets the war go and returns to Russia. Highly unlikely scenario.
True. Thanks IS. 👀👀👀👀👀
Another excellent article, Gen. Satterfield. I can’t say whether I hope Russia collapses or not.
I don’t think Russia will collapse but will burn itself out in the war. Clearly, Russia was declining already and their population was crashing. Nobody wants to go to Russia to live and drink Vodka. If you live there, you want out. If you are a young man, you definitely want out to avoid being sent to the meat grinder on the Ukrainian front. The oligarchs are still getting rich thru corruption, as well as Putin. The problem for Putin is his health. I think he is about 71 and that is when you start developing health problems. The Russian medical system is weak. So, the real question might also be, “what happens when Putin dies,” whether thru natural or other causes does not matter.
Steady there Max, Thoughtful comment to Gen. Satterfield’s article. 👍
I’m not so sure Russia will collapse. Gen. Satterfield noted something very important at the end. Russia has great natural resources. All communist nations must have natural or human resources to do well because they cannot rely upon their population’s acceptance of their dictatorship.
Max is right, Unwoke Dude. Russians that can, are getting out. We call that a “brain drain” and the long-term implications are enormous.
If I was Russian Pres. Putin, I’d be planning my escape. But he is a nationalist and so he won’t run. At least that is my thinking.
There are several possible scenarios with Putin. Of course one is assassination. Another is he will have a “heart attack.” Another is that he will have some fatal accident. And, he might also just win in the war and become a great man on the International Stage (that is highly unlikely). The war in Ukraine is doing great damage to his country.