[August 8, 2020] The ultimate goal of any leader is to lead people from Point A (a less desirable place) to Point B (a better place). The “how” is what leadership is all about. When there is a point in the future no sane person wants to get to, the best leaders develop a strategy, gathers resources, and lead people to an alternative. What to do about Iran’s nuke strategy will soon be an unavoidable Pink Flamingo event. What to do about it is the question of today.
Discussions involving how to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons are many. But no international organization has dealt with the question of how to prepare for that day. The struggle in the Middle East between Iraq (or its proxies) and the region is a battle for supremacy. It’s not new and will not go away anytime soon.
Iran’s central objective is not the destruction of Israel, although that goal is not far from the minds of its leaders. More important is their continued existence. A nuclear blast in Israel at the hands of Iran’s leadership will promptly lead to Iran’s end. The objective of Iran is to render the regime immune to external attack as it pursues its quest for regional hegemony.1
There is no question that individual Middle East states, notably including Israel, along with other European and American countries, must prepare themselves for the prospect of a nuclear Iran. The atomic world is already perilous. Current estimates are that 10,000 nuclear warheads are scattered across the globe. Likewise, 51 nuclear devices have been lost entirely, their whereabouts unknown.
Our international community, mostly represented by the United Nations, has its head in the sand. Individual countries that fail to properly plan for such a Pink Flamingo incident will lead to disaster. Some argue that a single or small number of nuclear strikes is not an endgame for any military. But the level of destruction will stretch the resources of any country.
The most crucial element in preparedness is good communication with the citizenry. Those educated on how to survive temporarily without power, food, and water will be better off in such a nuclear scenario. Panic is a problem that can be largely overcome with proper training and preparation.
Our current policy of silence on what can and should be done in case of a nuclear emergency is wrong. Indeed, a chance of a nuke attack from Iran is small, but the possibility rises with increased instability in the Middle East. America is a world leader. Its leadership should be investing heavily in preparedness now and not wait until the Pink Flamingo rises.
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“Pink Flamingo” what a great concept. Thanks for the international wedge today, Gen. Satterfield.
The Islamic Republic’s crude oil production has halved. This certainly crimps their style in the terror markets.
Typical socialist country that relies either on plentiful natural resources (read that as oil, precious metals, diamonds, etc.) or on slave labor (read that as China). Once again, people don’t matter, only the govt matters. Everything else is secondary.
Sooooo right, Max. ?
Iran is determined to develop its oil industry in spite of sanctions imposed by the United States on the country, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said in a televised speech last month. “We will not surrender under any circumstances […] We have to increase our capacity so that when necessary with full strength we can enter the market and revive our market share,” said Zanganeh. https://www.dawn.com/news/1568348
Hit by reimposed US sanctions since Washington exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran’s oil exports are estimated at 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day, down from more than 2.5m bpd that Iran shipped in April 2018.
Trump left the door open to a possible meeting while speaking with reporters at the White House this past week, saying America could help lift sanctions and lower Iranian inflation if Tehran was willing to come to the table.
They won’t ‘come to the table.’ Period. Now, the just want to wait out the US elections. Their thinking is that Joe Biden will win and again a favorable status to the US. Trump is their nemesis. Waiting is their current strategy.
I’m not so sure. I think the American election has little to do with what they think or do.
Iran is, undeniably, a rogue nation with ambitions that exceed its capabilities. Mixed in with a little religious fervor, it makes for a dangerous combination.
Why does their religion insist upon the conversion of all others into their religion? What if you reject it? What if you just want to be Christian?
Then they are obligated to kill you, tax you, and discriminate against you. Islam is complex so I recommend anyone interested to read up on it.
Excellent article on an important, yet overlooked, international problem. Iran will have no qualms about using a nuclear device and then deny they did it. Of course, we all know that Nukes can be traced. Not thru serial numbers but from the nuclear material makeup. It’s like a fingerprint. Of course, that’s if we can get close enough to test it.
Great analysis of Iran’s intentions and the desire of the International community to avoid doing anything about this rogue nation that has helped spread Islamic terrorism across all continents.
Yes, and even the USA is not doing much Iran. Oh, wait a minute, isn’t Joe Biden taking about re-entering agreements with Iran and giving them more money like Pres. Obama did? Or am I missing something?
Iran’s mullahs are dangerous. They want hegemony over the world and the drive is from their religious beliefs that Islam must either expand or die. They want it to continue forever. That explains their political ambitions too.