[October 5, 2015] Russian leadership decided to increase their support for their ally Syria and President Bashar al-Assad and in doing so actively used their military in a more direct role. While few know the strategy of Russia, it’s sensible for them to keep it undisclosed, what is known is that their role is no longer to stand by while anti-Assad military forces make additional territorial gains.
Like the Allied forces in World War II that did not divulge their Europe First strategy, Russia is maximizing its military in ways that’s caught the enemies of Assad by surprise. That is not unexpected, but what it does mean is that any military or support elements fighting against the country of Syria will be considered a target for destruction. We should not expect anything different.
The U.S. was surprised by Russia increasing its support of Assad through more direct military intervention, U.S. President Barak Obama predicted that it won’t work and will lead to a quagmire in the Middle East.1,2 He didn’t state why, but the reason for Obama’s condemnation is that the U.S. supports a “moderate rebel” force that opposes Assad and is opposes the Assad regime. The presence of a strong Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist organization fighting Assad complicates the U.S. position.
On the one hand, we can infer quite a bit of the Russian strategy from their actions – it’s simple, direct, and low risk. On the other, the U.S. position is less clear – it’s more nuanced, less confrontational, and has been amended occasionally. Russian President Vladimir Putin has come out as the savior of Syrian Christians and the destroyer of the Islamic State terrorist organization; a leadership coup.
To add more complexity to the issue of fighting the Islamic State, the U.S. is highly sensitive to criticism whenever “excess force” is used or collateral damage injures or kills innocents.4 The sensitivity is so great that the effectiveness of military force – through restrictive rules of engagement – is low. Russia has no such self-imposed limitation.
Putin has shown leadership while the U.S. hesitates. Putin’s moves have created a dilemma for Obama and both know it.3 One of the many lessons of leadership is that being bold helps achieve one’s goals. Russia is being bold.
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- http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/world/middleeast/obama-condemns-russias-role-in-bombing-syria.html?_r=0
- http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/01/russia-targeting-non-isis-groups-syria-airstrikes
- http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/opinions/syria-putin-obama-dilemma/index.html