[September 14, 2024] The collapse of Russia has been predicted by academics and geopolitical experts for many years, and so far, we’ve seen its economy, military, and political structure remain in place. No one knows the answer to the question of whether Russia will collapse or how or when, but one thing is known, and that is America is unprepared for when that day comes.
In 1991, the world was caught off guard when the Soviet Union broke apart and was replaced by 15 independent countries. In part, because of that failure, Russia rose up to remain an enemy of the West and a worldwide danger. Essentially, America and Europe stood by and did little to help any of these new countries or the old Russia move away from the chaos that followed.
To make realistic and effective decisions on how to act when/if Russia collapses, it is important also to understand why. I wrote about these reasons earlier this year. They are within a massive demographic decline, exodus of young/skilled people, Western sanctions, aging infrastructure, and a disgruntled population. There are also environmental pressures, a weakening of international trade and protection of the global economy, and a growing anger against Russia for how it is conducting the war in Ukraine.
We should not make that same geo-strategic mistake to fail to plan for a Russian collapse ever again. America’s ignorance will do none of us any good.
There are several scenarios that Russia could fall apart: Putin stays in power, he is ousted, and a more radical president is installed, it becomes a democratic state (unlikely), or Russia fractures into federation states (likely). America should review these scenarios and at least create policies and plans that would enable the U.S. president to marshal resources in advance and ready our citizens for that day when Russians will need our help.
The impact of a collapse could be catastrophic for many nations that heavily depend upon Russia’s oil/fuel, precious metals, grain, steel/iron, and fertilizer. Countries that rely upon these will suffer, like Brazil, China, and India. The U.S. will feel the effects but only indirectly since America can exist without Russian imports. The strain on world markets will be another story, and that is where America needs good leadership.
Our problem, and the world’s problem, is that America currently has a failed executive branch and its legislative branch in chaos. It is difficult to plan realistic solutions to world problems when the U.S. president is incapable of making decisions (and don’t think otherwise). Others in the Executive Branch are making decisions for the president, but these are not coordinated and focused more on internal issues and largely ignore foreign affairs.
And this failure to plan will continue at least until January 2025, when the new president is installed. It is even possible that the next president will purposefully not plan for Russia’s collapse because to do so would undermine our current political position with Russia and her allies.
China and India are, of course, wild cards in this, and their economic plans can impact a possible Russian collapse in good and bad ways. But any failure to plan by America simply creates a more unstable, unpredictable, and unusual circumstance where there are going to be dire consequences for our failure.
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Thanks Gen. Satterfield. Good article. I’d like to see more on international affairs.
Americans are ignorant of foreign affairs. All they see is Russia Russia Russia trying to “influence” our presidential election. What morons we can be sometimes. Er, all the time.
Yeah, Americans are more interested in trans ideology and turning men into women than the real world. Shows what happens when hedonistic desires become you focal point in life. Let’s get back to our basic values and then perhaps we can continue to do good in the world.
From here we can see chaos but will that happen.
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“The impact of a collapse could be catastrophic for many nations that heavily depend upon Russia’s oil/fuel, precious metals, grain, steel/iron, and fertilizer. Countries that rely upon these will suffer, like Brazil, China, and India. The U.S. will feel the effects but only indirectly since America can exist without Russian imports. The strain on world markets will be another story, and that is where America needs good leadership.” – Gen. Doug Satterfield
This makes me wonder what China and India will do.
Will there be chaos and destruction? History shows us that while imperial collapse is often chaotic for the countries doing the collapsing, the outcome is not always bad for their neighbors or the rest of the world. Napoleon’s demise ushered in an era of relative peace in Europe. The breakup of Austria-Hungary saw some initial fighting, including between Poles and Ukrainians, but conditions stabilized after a few years. Even the Soviet collapse was remarkably peaceful—most likely because the newly independent former Soviet republics and the newly sovereign European satellite countries all had recognized borders, functioning administrations, and their own elites ready to build states.
Hmmmm, maybe. On the negative side of the ledger, the Ottoman Empire’s collapse led to horrific fighting between Turks and Greeks; the Russian Empire’s collapse spawned conflict from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean; and the German Empire’s fall in 1918 arguably led straight to World War II.
Great points. 👍
What will be the dangers of Russia’s disintegration? Here Gen. Satterfield is not giving us solutions but gives us instead a warning that the world should not be blind about it and prepare. This is not like a small country falling apart but one that is a major exporter of critical goods. Those most dependent upon Russia will also possibly fall.
“Mildred GIllars was an American who was known as Axis Sally in WWII. After the war, she was convicted of treason and sentence to 10 to 30 years in prison.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/
Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.
The combination of Russia’s failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion with every passing day. Regardless of whether this will be good or bad for the West, it’s an outcome policymakers should prepare for. And I agree.
Good article with similar ideas as Gen. Satterfield. Thanks ZB for referencing it.
Nothing like a little geo-politics in the morning. Thanks all.