[March 18, 2024] The Russian-Ukraine War has been going on for just over two years, and the tactics and strategies of both countries have evolved. A good example is the use of drones. The latest development in the war is Ukraine’s use of long-range drones to destroy Russian oil refineries inside Russia itself. These kinds of attacks are relatively recent and go to the heart of Russia’s weakness: its reliance on oil exports to fund the war.
What I found interesting is that Russian citizens are seeing these drones flying overhead and attacking, so they film them and post their videos on social media. These videos help us assess the damage to Russian infrastructure, a very unexpected outcome of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war. To make matters worse for Putin is that these attacks are close to Moscow, and the presidential election just ended yesterday, March 17th.
Both countries are now on an industrial wartime footing. This means that what manufacturing companies once produced for local consumption or export has now been converted to support the war. The advantage to the war effort is obvious, but the long-term downside impact on the population is dire.
The Ukrainian government set up a program called Brave1 in April 2023 with an initial budget of USD 2.7M. The companies that signed up are those that develop technologies for the world market but are now developing tech for the defense against Russia. For example, unmanned vehicles (air, land, and sea drones) are designed to take the war effort onto Russian soil or into air and sea space. That is why we’ve seen many Russian Navy ships sunk by Ukraine that have no navy.
Ukraine is changing its war strategy from attrition warfare to economic warfare. Ukraine’s government knows it cannot compete against Russia in a one-for-one trade because Russia has a much larger population and is economically more powerful. Attrition warfare is not a good choice for Ukraine. The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have a significant negative impact on Russian revenues. Refineries are a good target because the products are high-value, unlike essential crude oil.
This strategy is a winner for Ukraine. Economic warfare against Russia carries little downside and much lower risk. Russia has already attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, so the latter has little to lose by changing its drone war strategy. It is estimated that just this week’s attacks alone will cost Russia more than USD 10M per day.
Will Ukraine’s economic warfare work? In the short term, it certainly will work. Russia is a big country with insufficient air defense networks to protect every refinery, sea and airport, manufacturing facility, etc. I predict more strikes on oil refineries, but Ukraine will need to rotate targets to ensure Russia is unable to make changes to avoid damage.
This war continues, and its impact on world oil and food supplies will impact us all this year. Expect higher prices on everything.
War brings surprises. That is a lesson since the beginning of mankind.
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We call this going after their Center of Gravity. Now, invest in popcorn and watch the spectacle.
Way to go Ukraine.
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Vladimir Putin claimed a landslide victory and a fifth term in Russia’s presidential election, with the Kremlin’s electoral machine boosting his share of the vote and turnout to near farcical levels. After counting 75% of ballots, Russia’s electoral commission claimed Putin was leading with 87.14% of the vote and that turnout was the highest in history at 74% of the electorate. The war in Ukraine was front and centre in his victory speech, as Putin claimed he was securing the border from recent raids by pro-Ukrainian military units and said that his main tasks as president would be the war in Ukraine, “strengthening defence capacity and the military”. Asked about the potential for a direct conflict with Nato, he said: “I think that everything is possible in the modern world … everyone understands that this would be one step from a full-scale third world war. I don’t think that anyone is interested in that.” – The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/ukraine-war-briefing-no-evil-putin-will-not-commit-to-hold-on-to-power-zelenskiy-says
Thank you New Girl for the link.
Another spot-on article. Good to see Ukraine taking it to the Russian people. Long overdue.
Slava Ukraine.
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Cool, I agree with you Steve that we are all happy to see Russia taking it where it hurts. Yes, overdue. But the war has changed to many things that it is hard to keep up. I’m glad that Gen. Satterfield gives us a bit of the important news now and again. In this case we have a dropping of oil and oil refined products and this is starting to get Putin worried. Communist nations only exist when there is plenty of natural resources to draw upon. Just look around to see proof of that.
Cheers, Steve and Bryan. Great comments.
Pray for Ukraine victory. 🙏
Pastor John
Amen. Prayer is needed. The Bible says men should always pray. Prayer change things.
“What I found interesting is that Russian citizens are seeing these drones flying overhead and attacking, so they film them and post their videos on social media. These videos help us assess the damage to Russian infrastructure, a very unexpected outcome of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war. To make matters worse for Putin is that these attacks are close to Moscow, and the presidential election just ended yesterday, March 17th.” – Gen. Doug Satterfield. I imagine that Russia just “re-elected” Putin for another life term by millions to zero.
Gen. Satterfield, thanks for keeping us informed. To many have simply forgotten about the Ukraine War after the Hamas terrorists (supported by Joe Biden) attacked Israel. Let our government again not take their eye off the ball. We can actually do two things at once.
Exactly, Maximillian. This is the right place to get a general view of leadership. If you suggest something to Gen. Satterfield, he might actually write about it. 🤷♂️
Indeed, right. But more importantly, in my opinion, Gen. S. is the one who picks what he thinks is most important and writes about it. There is always a theme to his writings and for that reason, I’m staying a regular reader of his blog. Let’s celebrate this website: https://www.theleadermaker.com. Sir, keep writing for us.
It’s well beyond time that Ukraine started to hit Russia where it hurts most, in their oil and power industry. This is certainly a major escalation but also needed. Russia’s only comeback will be to threaten nuclear war. That’s a hoot. Russia has more to lose than gain by far if they use nukes, even tactical nukes.
Thank you, Army Vet. This is a war that the unexpected will happen again. I’ll write more about it then. In the meantime, there are many outlets that do a good job of laying out what is happening on the ground, but few that talk about the strategic nature of the fight.
Thank you, sir for all you do for us and keeping us informed, and sometimes, entertained too.
Will Ukraine’s economic warfare work? In the short term, it certainly will work. Russia is a big country with insufficient air defense networks to protect every refinery, sea and airport, manufacturing facility, etc. I predict more strikes on oil refineries, but Ukraine will need to rotate targets to ensure Russia is unable to make changes to avoid damage.
Good points. Appreciate it. 😊