[April 5, 2020] In combat, one of the first things I learned was that there are many unknown unknowns, those future outcomes that we cannot predict. What is most troubling for leaders is that we cannot even plan for them. The recent example of the Coronavirus pandemic highlights this fact as we only now foresee the consequences of the disease.
There are many predictable consequences. For example, we know that there will be a massive economic price to pay when businesses shut down, crime will increase, and many will lose their jobs. Also, because of the high infection rate, our military readiness will decline significantly. And, since we have no vaccines, many people will die. While we neither have exact numbers nor a precise eye on these specifics, we are confident we can put measures into place that will help.
“As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. “ – Donald Rumsfeld, past U.S. Secretary of Defense
Let’s get right down to it. The virus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. It’s spread is nearly universal, swift, and deadly. So, what are some of the unforeseen consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic?
- Governments exist on the belief that their institutions can anticipate disaster, stop or slow its impact, and restore stability. People see that many of the most influential institutions are failing. The day of reckoning has not yet arrived, but when it does, the results will not be pretty.
- Young people in the West have rejected social-distancing guidance. Recently called the irresponsible generation, they continue to party and socialize closely, thereby helping spread the virus to all corners of the globe.
- Governments everywhere are releasing criminals of all kinds into mainstream society. Given the closeness of prison life, officials believe that such action will slow the spread and save lives. However, the resulting crime increase will have an additional devastating impact on our communities.
- The globalization drive across Europe and North America, especially in the economic realm, has started to slow. Country leaders are beginning to realize that a global network will fail them in times of crisis.
- The pandemic is slowing desert locust response amid new swarms and unavailability of pesticides. Slowing down of fighting the locust means an increase in starvation and malnutrition throughout Sub-Saharan Africa.
- … and then there is the hoarding of toilet paper. A prepper friend tells me that he wasn’t surprised, but the rest of us were. Along with bottled water (my tap still works), napkins and paper towels are flying off the shelves. We see a run on grocery-store items that won’t put food in your mouth.
As I relax in my leather reclining chair, drinking coffee, and petting my yellow Labrador, I find that those unintended consequences manageable. True, our leaders will take a little time to get their act together, but they certainly will do so. If you live in the West or any democratic nation, odds are you will weather this storm. Those unknown unknowns are real buggers. As expected, they will cause harm, but society will recover.
I would suggest that the response to COVID-19 should be studied for years to come as a case study in how not to handle a crisis.
The tasks at which our political and business leaders have failed is in two egregious respects. First, they’ve been unable to foster a shared sense of mission. Second, they’ve failed to show shared sacrifice.
Good points made here by Gen. Satterfield and should not be ignored. This is the type of thinking that makes us better leaders because we will be less likely to be “caught off guard” by surprises and to be ready if they occur. Like me, others have had the unexpected happen to them. Some fail outright when they panic or make emotional decisions. Others keep their heads and are prepared. That is the theme here. Let’s not forget the lesson.
Excellent points today, Gen. Satterfield. Thanks. I might add another for us to consider. The complete collapse of economies’ ahead as Africa faces virus. What will be the outcome? Frankly, no one knows. We can put together some scenarios but those are just educated guesses. Many are going to suffer because the leaders in Africa are often corrupt, socialist, or are begin guided by communists and Islamist leaders.
Further challenges exist. Rampant corruption in many African countries feeds inequality, and poor or non-existent public services stoke public anger that sometimes escalates into street protests and deadly violence.
Very true Fred. Thanks.
I am a big fan of this leadership page and have been for several months now. With the pandemic in progress, now I have more time to read about leadership and watch it on tv.
Here is another unexpected event, “U.S. expands Navy presence in Caribbean. Is military action against Maduro more likely?” Latest headlines. Will we invade Venezuela? Will the nation collapse under its political corruption? Too many possibilities and the point of Gen. Satterfield that he made here today.
And the World Health Organization has lost all credibility. This is the result of putting in charge someone just because they are not from the West. Idiots are in charge there. Too weak mentally so they took their cue from China. Corruption at the WHO is another pandemic that will never be cured.
I like this article because it continues to make the point, as in the past here at theLeaderMaker.com, that Communist/Socialist philosophies are failures to the individual. Only the state party matters. I’m starting to see this is US politicians like Democrat Chuck Shumer and Nancy Pelosi.
Right and Bernie Sanders is at the head of the mob. While his rival, Joe Biden is at the back of the mob trying to figure out what day it is or whether he’s at a funeral or Macy’s Day parade.
Harry, you da man! Great comment about ‘slow joe’ Biden. The man cannot even put together a complete sentence.
Funny comments but spot-on. This is why I read the forum’s comments. You guys are really entertaining sometimes (note, not always). ?
I will add another.
China is using this pandemic to be more aggressive with their military. Small things that may not seem to matter much but this is their methodology. Incremental take overs.
Good point, Army Cpt.
Excellent list. I heard of the locusts, a biblical plague that is more damaging that we might think, at first. While it might not impact us directly, we will have to ship foods to parts of Africa or watch as many starve.
Here’s one we could predict. For those communist dictatorships — “Coronavirus: China’s Great Cover-up” https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15844/coronavirus-china-cover-up
Right!! In communist as well as socialist nations, the truth is the first thing to be sacrificed. Why? Because these forms of ideology cannot exist in a world where the truth exists. No one should be shocked by this revelation.
“This is one of the worst cover-ups in human history, and now the world is facing a global pandemic,” said Rep. Michael T. McCaul, the ranking Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, before the US intelligence community concluded, in a classified report to the White House, that China has concealed the origin and extent of the catastrophic global coronavirus outbreak.
And, the World Health Organization is facing a mounting backlash over its handling of China’s cover-up of the novel coronavirus.
Yes, the “unknown, unknowns.” The most scary thing a leader has to face. This is one of the four fears of all humans.