[December 19, 2022] Chinese and American relations are about to fail. That has been only a matter of time for many years now and only a matter of what issue finally puts a nail in the China-US relation coffin. It could be what the U.S. President says openly, or it could be energy, food, security, trade, genocide, or a long list of issues based primarily on social values. But it appears that COVID is the issue that is what is driving relations to fail.
The Chinese vaccine does not work against COVID, and the Chinese have spent the last two years criticizing the world and producing propaganda that they are the only country that even remotely has dealt well with COVID. And, they specifically parroted a lot of the crazy theories about the Western vaccines that those vaccines will make you magnetic or infertile. This means they cannot now import effective Western vaccines at all. They will have to wait until they make their own, which will likely not happen for a year or so.
Chinese propaganda is forcing themselves to adopt the only public health policy that works against an exploding COVID outbreak they are now under (due to relaxing their policies a couple of weeks ago). And now, parts of China that matter are going offline. If you’re stuck in manufacturing in China, that is a problem. When you have a societal opening in China, the Omicron COVID variant will come rushing back in, and then you get a closing because that is the only tool the Chinese Communist Party has left.
The question is, “What’s next for China?” And also, “What does this mean for the rest of the world?” Remember, there is a labor shortage in the West, especially in America. Companies will need to look for labor elsewhere for those manufacturing jobs that are going offline in China, and there is no good answer.
But the biggest problem for China is its population. Earlier this year, China admitted that it overcounted its population by about 100 million (mostly young people). So, the best guess is that China has only 1.3 billion people, and their population peaked more than a decade ago. By 2030 there will be more retirees than workers, and by 2050, the entire population of China will drop to below 650 million. This means that this is the decade that the Chinese economic system will collapse, assuming nothing else will go wrong.
China went all the way from pre-industrial to post-industrial collapse in 45 years. The population collapse that was pushing them into economic collapse started under Mao because they were concerned that the population explosion after World War II would eat the country alive. So they went to a one-child policy and only realized what this meant in 2015. But by that point, the damage had already been done.
Those countries that industrialize later can follow the path of those who came before and can skip some steps. Moreover, China did this and was the fastest-ever industrialization experience. What Britain did in seven generations, the Chinese did in one, and so they crammed seven generations of economic growth and development into one, and that is why their growth rate has been so impressive. You can only do that once, and that is now behind them. Now they have no children and very few people under the age of 45.
And Africa is about to go down this same road in a few years.
See yesterday’s article quoting Peter Zeihan’s view on China:
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crash is next for china
This article on China is far more important than you my think it is at this time. China is going to have a gigantic population crash and it is happening right now. What that means for the world overall is unknown because we don’t have an economic model that takes into account a population crash. But, if you have a manufacturing plant in China, get out NOW before it’s too late. And, oh, don’t buy any Chinese made things. They depend upon slave labor.
Bernie, right, and the “progressive” types are ignoring this completely.
What you see here happening in China is totally ignored in mainstream media. Why? Because they are a captive of the Chinese narrative that America is bad and Chinese Communism is the utopia everyone wants because it is “fair.”
What is next for China? Great question. The answer is unknown today.
Right! .. and bless General Satterfield for giving us this info.
A crash is coming and we know it, we are just not in a position to know how bad the crash will be.
I’ve read estimates of dead Chinese from one half million to 3 million. We will never know because the CCP will hide the truth from the world and from their own people. Amazing how terrible the CHinese dictator Xi is and his horrible policies.
COVID is about to kill several million Chinese and that will happen quicker than we think. And the Chinese Communist Party will never tell the truth about those deaths.
Total deaths will have to be above 4 to 5 million. In America, the virus killed more than a million and our population is 330 million. The Chinese have at least 4 times that number and the virus is about to run thru them all at once. Pow. The real question is whether the CCP will survive. I hope not.
The impact is unknown except millions will surely die. This is a feature of Communism, not an accident.
Shocking ………………
Predictions are all over the place.
1.3 billion? I’ve read 1.4 billion. This is no rounding error but it also shows what can happen when a government is used to lying instead of being truthful. American politicians are getting more alike China than ever before. Lying is becoming our new norm.
Excellent article again. Thanks, and a Happy Christmas to all my American friends.
Hey, thanks BC. And to you as well. Merry Christmas. And now, go kick some communist butt.
MERRY CHRISTMAS to all. A few days ahead of time, but I might not be able to post comments since my kids are about to visit me from Illinois.
“And Africa is about to go down this same road in a few years.” — Gen. Satterfield. This is going to haunt the world in ways we cannot yet predict but at least should be thinking about. Africa, esp. sub-Saharan Africa will not be planning at all.
None of this says that China will disappear as a major power or that its economy will cease growing. It does say, however, that contrary to most media commentary today, that country’s growth rate will slow appreciably going forward, as will its pace of development and innovation. However, their inevitable population decline will put them back on their heels and stifle future innovation and economic expansion.
YES, China is due for a crash and if you manufacture there, you better get out now. Nothing better could happen to a nation that has predatory behavior toward other countries. 👀
Be prepared, as Gen. Satterfield always says. That is Rule 7, “wear your helmet, clean your rifle, and carry a rucksack”….. Just read his book “55 Rules for a Good Life” and you will expand your life beyond what you think you could ever be. Do yourself a favor and get a copy of his book on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/55-Rules-Good-Life-Responsibility/dp/1737915529/
China was not prepared. Since the CCP only produces what they think others should know, then they believe all other govts do the same.
One of his best rules and a rule that most of us ignore because of our hubris and immaturity.
Bless general satterfield for his goodness.
Thanks General Satterfield. Well done! I like the new direction your website has taken. Yet, it does make my head spin when you go from micro to macro ideas in the same week. Don’t change. I just wanted to let you know that I like it.
Zip! You got it Eye Cat. I’m a fan for exactly that reason. Nothing boring here.
Great article that made me understand a little more about China’s population crash.
exactly
Very interesting what is happening and I had not idea about the Chinese population collapse. Just like I say, they should have seen it coming and stupid is, as stupid does.
Nailed it, Forrest Gump. Took the CCP too long to realize they were headed to a fall in their population in such a short time period. American demographers have been saying this for at least 20 years but the CCP leaders thought the Americans were just pushing propaganda like they do daily.
Yep, just what I wanted to read. ha ha …. more articles like this make me want to stay a fan of Gen. Satterfield. Oh, and get his book “55 Rules for a Good Life.”
The key demographic in this regard is the relative size of the country’s working population. Because China’s one-child policy has over time come to limit the human resources available to support the country’s dependent population, largely China’s elderly, the nation will lose much of its ability to invest for future growth. The figures are stark.